Will AI take over human intelligence?
On the second anniversary of GPT-3, gwern gives an overview of the political landscape related to AI timelines:
There are several political decisions that could delay the advent of artificial general intelligence. One such decision would be an invasion of Taiwan severely affecting chip production.
This is also related to the concept of an anthropic shadow:
If artificial intelligence were to cause human extinction. However, required a lot of computing power. Moreover, you would be more likely to find yourself in world lines. which the necessary conditions for cheap computers are not met.
If you were living in such a world line you might expect to see crypto miners causing a GPU shortage or supply chain disruptions due to a pandemic.
A war between the United States and China over Taiwan in which important chip fabrication plants become destroyed. Also much more likely occurring in world lines. That are not wiped out.
In conclusion, an anthropic shadow hides evidence in favor of catastrophic and existential risks by making observations more likely in worlds where such risks did not materialize, causing an underestimation of actual risk.