Why Did St Louis Decline?
Poor policies, rampant crime, declining shopping and negative momentum in practically every social category!
The recent sale of a 44-story, long-vacant building in St. Louis for $3.6 million—a drastic drop from its 2006 price of $205 million—highlights the severe impact of remote work on the city’s commercial real estate, particularly in the context of a broader, ongoing population decline. St. Louis’s population dipped below 300,000 in 2020 for the first time since the mid-1800s, exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. This decline, particularly noticeable in the downtown area, saw office workers relocating to suburban settings, leveraging remote technologies like Zoom, with many not returning to their former urban offices.
Wainwright Building (1891). An important early skyscraper designed by Louis Sullivan.
A July 2022 report by the Brookings Institution classified the urban population loss experienced during the pandemic as “historic,” with cities such as San Francisco, New York, Washington, Boston, and St. Louis all experiencing significant downturns. While some cities have managed to recover their downtown vitality, St. Louis and San Francisco have not seen a comparable resurgence.
Despite this, recent data suggests a glimmer of recovery in St. Louis. Updated findings from the University of Toronto show that as of February this year, St. Louis ranks 26th in downtown foot traffic recovery among North American cities, witnessing a 16% increase. While still trailing cities like Pittsburgh and Detroit, St. Louis is faring better than others such as Indianapolis and Kansas City.
What about the Doom Loop? Can St Louis break out?
The Delmar Loop is a neighborhood close to Washington University, on the border of the city and St. Louis County.
However, the city faces a significant challenge in reversing the so-called “doom loop,” a cycle where deteriorating conditions prompt a further exodus, thus worsening the situation. This pattern is hard to break, particularly when starting from a lower baseline of foot traffic and urban activity as compared to other cities.
On a more positive note, areas around downtown St. Louis are showing signs of life, attracting new developments including a soccer stadium, restaurants, bars, residential buildings, and a repurposed train station turned into an amusement park. These developments indicate a potential shift in urban dynamics. Thus, suggesting that while traditional office districts may continue to struggle, other parts of the city are becoming centers of activity and rejuvenation.
This ongoing transformation underscores the complexity of urban recovery and adaptation in the post-pandemic era. Cities like New York and San Francisco have demonstrated the potential for rapid recovery, providing a hopeful framework for cities like St. Louis to potentially follow.
