When Will Russia Invade Ukraine? So over the next 48 hours all 6 of the Russian Amphibious warships sent from the Baltic to the Black Sea will be at Sevastopol. Three are already there. The questions are 1) will Russia attack. 2) Will they attack next week AFTER the close of the Olympics on Sunday the 20th? 3)
Before the close – say late next week. Watch this space.
It’s 40F to 45F and RAINING in THE UKRAINE. It’s going to be like this for the next 14 days (from the European Weather Model) and projected as the same for the next 30 days. The Rasputitsa has set in early…..
Think February 1944 and the German panzers relief attempt of the Korsun Pocket. Same weather and ground conditions….and the panzers were mired in the mud. NO PANZER VORREN for now until the weather and ground conditions harden/improve.
KEEP YORK EYES ON THE EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL/ REPORTS. That will indicate whether/ when Ivan and the Red Army will commence offensive operations.
The question is what’s happening with the three Slava-class cruisers. The Turks appear to have some leeway about controlling the movement of the two from the Northern and Pacific Fleets joining the Moskva in the Black Sea. It depends on whether Ankara might reconsider their definition of a “capital ship” (previously they have refused to draw an analogy between rockets or missiles, and big guns). The Turks also have more freedom to act vis-a-vis submarines.
In any case, it’s hard to see what more the two additional Slavas could add to the Russian position in the Black Sea. However, working together in the Mediterranean, they raise the specter of the old Cold War 5th Eskadra, ever poised to ambush the Sixth Fleet’s carrier battle group in the Sicilian Narrows.
We are approaching the moment of decision. When a politician says something like that, it usually means they already have the rabbit by the ears, ready to pull from the hat, to sighs of relief all around. Sometimes, though, they do mean just what they’re saying. That’s never a good sign.
