Ukraine Russia War 2021 : Will It Happen?
Ukraine Russia War 2021 : Will It Happen? Russia is 1) testing the Biden administration; 2) destabilizing Ukraine through coercive force—more psychologically than militarily, as it tries to divide the multi-ethnic Ukraine from within by supplying the militias in Eastern Ukraine and by disrupting the country through cyber warfare.
For the first reason, Russia would not go so far to invade Ukraine just as China would not go so far to invade Taiwan. I think it is being more opportunistic at a time of new admin in the US than being strategic for an all-out war.
To me, the claims of conventional war from Kremlin seems no more than diplomatic deterrence that counters similar claims from EU and NATO. For the second reason, I really have no idea why Russia wants to keep Ukraine destabilized: perhaps the warm-water ports, perhaps a similar ambition as China has right now based on the continental theory in terms of geopolitics, or simply keeping it away from the West.
In addition, I do not think the recent meeting between Ukrainian president and Turkish president is anything huge. Turkey is probably trying to balance things up; but Turkey is quite caught up between the west and east—it’s a part of NATO and Shanghai forum.
So, I agree with the opinions out there that Erdogan is being opportunistic as well: balance off Russia geopolitically while keeping some leverage economically, perhaps on the energy side especially. Ultimately, I don’t think Turkey wants to see a war in Ukraine at all. It’s playing a delicate game.
Ukraine Russia War 2021 : Will It Happen? Written by Anonymous Rebellion Teammate