Is Russia’s military powerful?
When the war broke out, Russia’s military was already in questionable shape. See our piece: Strength of Russian Military
Russia is already using most of its available armed forces in Ukraine.
Without calling up former conscripts (who are now reservists). Which requires a full mobilization, Russia’s armed forces facce an already stretched situation. Russia has a huge border and must maintain its defenses in the South, East and West. In reality, it has little to spare where Ukraine is concerned.
Moreover, those who think that Russia’s vast army is being held back are mistaken.
Added to this Russia’s losses of men and material in the failed attack on Kyiv has reduced their ability to fight. See our piece: How Many Tanks Does Russia Have In Ukraine?
No doubt lessons have been learned. And certain mistakes will not be made again but their armed forces are now hamstrung by having an unqualified politician (Putin) giving strategic and tactical orders to his military staff.
Russia no longer has the capacity to defeat the Ukrainian war machine.
The western powers are manufacturing and supplying arms and supplies. Furthermore, Russia has no power to stop this. Putin could flatten Ukraine’s manufacturing base and still the arms would come.
Russia only possesses long range artillery and missiles as a means of inflicting pain on the civilian population. Furthermore, history shows that random bombing of civilians rarely leads to victory. People become angry and resilient and dig in when this happens which is something they have already done.
Putin needs something to brag about on 9th May in Red Square.
He is demanding an end to the Mariupol Siege. As a result, the Russian Army currently works hard to conquer the Asov Steel works. Putin has three days left and his Generals look desperate to satisfy his demands. Regardless of what occurs in the next few days in Mariupol. There won’t be a great military victory for Putin but will forever be a symbolic and glorious memory for Ukraine.
In conclusion, of course we know that on the 9th May, Putin will invent a propaganda victory regardless of reality. Lastly, the truth is that his war is not going well.