Is it worth it for Russia to invade Ukraine? Russia will gain a lot of valuable natural resources, but much of it will be damaged in the fighting.
Plus, how badly will the sanctions upend Russia’s economy?
Strength Of Russian Military
Sanctions on Russia: The extent to which they are effective will be found here as Moscow is forced to draw down its $643 billion in reserves to defend the ruble. In addition, prop up its fading equity market. And furthermore, bailout VIP & state connected private firms. Of Russia’s $468 billion in FX reserves, approximately $16.4% of it in USD is down from 22% a year ago.
Moreover, note that is below 2008 levels.
Roughly 22% is in gold.
Russia’s financial position is not as strong as many states & looks quite vulnerable to current & coming sanctions.
Cutting off Russia from SWIFT is not a panacea but part of a well-orchestrated suite of sanctions that aims to undercut Moscow’s ability to finance the war, payoff the oligarchy that supports the government & create the domestic conditions to constrain Putin.
In conclusion, who knows what Putin is thinking or how much he will risk losing for Ukraine? Lastly, is there a troop death threshold limit for Putin?
