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Is Belarus Headed For A Civil War?

Is Belarus Headed For A Civil War?

The first government of the People’s Republic, Sitting left to right: Aliaksandar BurbisJan SieradaJazep VaronkaVasil Zacharka Standing, left to right: Arkadz SmolichPyotra KrecheuskiKastus JezavitauAnton AusianikLiavon Zayats

Belarus has a leader who is a strongman and in many eyes, a stooge of Vladimir Putin and Russia. Belarus’ leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka has continually transitioned his country to become a vassal state of Russia. This despite a people who do not want to be under Russian control and in regards to the recent war, sympathize with Ukraine.

Flag of Belarus

Ukraine War

The recent war has made schisms within the Belarusian military more apparent. Many believe Putin had instructed Lukashenka to invade Ukraine to assist in Russia’s mission. However, many top leaders in Belarus’ military refused and the consequences were severe. Firstly, nearly 16,000 troops according to reports walked across the border to fight for Ukraine against Putin. Secondly, many top commanders refused the orders to attack Ukraine. In addition, some top officers offered to reimburse the government for the cost of their training and buyout their contracts. While many others asked for their contracts simply cancelled.

Will Belarus Finally Invade?

Emblem of Belarus

Recently, according to Al Jazeera: “President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office says there is a high risk of an attack on the Volyn region being launched from Belarus.” Lukashenka is between a rock and a hard place. Putin’s war is going so badly that his pressure on Lukashenka likely is at a boiling point level. Russia needs all the help it can get. But, how many troops will Belarus be able to deliver? The country is abuzz with all of the dead Russian soldiers coming through morgues of Belarus. The morale for the military apparently is at an all-time low.

Lukashenka

Belarus’ leader might live in fear of Putin, but other top leaders within the government might not have such fears of the Russian leader. Especially with the recent losses in Ukraine weakening Putin’s position. Furthermore, Belarus sees the sanctions coming down. Moreover, and can not be happy with this direction their country heads in. Perhaps they do invade, whatever forces they can muster. But, might it be the catalyst for a coup? We will see.

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Is Belarus Headed For A Civil War?