How much will SpaceX be worth?

How much will SpaceX be worth?

The COTS 2 Dragon is berthed to the International Space Station (ISS) by Canadarm2.

SpaceX is the world’s top firm in the field of rocket technology, founded by Elon Musk. Relying on its leading position in the industry and the two main businesses of rocket launching and ‘Starlink’, have received a market value for SpaceX exceeding $100 billion.

The high value is somehow reasonable because of its competitiveness in the market. 

First, SpaceX has collaborated with NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. SpaceX has used NASA’s launch facilities, landing sites, and control oversight to conduct some of its most notable missions. Also, SpaceX has contracted heavily with NASA to manage its market value and keeps serving NASA’s needs. Innovating with governments throughout the world has made SpaceX a valuable partner. These all help SpaceX maintain its market position.

Secondly, SpaceX values cutting-edge technology and intellectual property.
The SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft. Designed to deliver crew to and from the International Space Station. As part of the Commercial Crew Development program

It has built a reputation for mission success by manufacturing its equipment and developing its workforce. This makes it difficult for the competitors in the market because they need to design better spacecraft or produce at SpaceX’s technological level.

Finally, the need for satellite launches will increase as more and more people worldwide become technologically advanced, which means this market will grow rapidly. There will be an increasing number of businesses looking to use the orbital space encircling our globe to develop communication and internet capacity in previously inaccessible regions. Therefore, as a leading company in the industry, SpaceX will take great advantage of this market growth.

However, SpaceX is also facing many problems. Whether the high market value can be sustainable is highly related to how the company can solve the existing issues. 

The first threat for the company is the contractual issue with NASA.
SpaceX west coast launch facility at Vandenberg Space Force Base, during the launch of CASSIOPE, September 2013

Elon Musk and NASA are the primary sources of funding for the firm. If future flights fail, current contracts with NASA and other large organizations are at risk of being terminated, resulting in a loss of money. This is a high-risk activity due to the uncertainty around its potential profitability. Unless SpaceX continues to perform at such a high level, authorities will stop funding the company’s operations. Because it is their primary source of revenue, the firm would be destroyed if this were to happen.

Secondly, there have been multiple launch delays, and the frequency of launches is quite low. For example, Elon Musk said SpaceX would perform a “bunch of tests” of the Starship vehicle and its Super Heavy booster in December.

However, the company has yet to perform most of those tests. Which means the launch will very likely become delayed again. Another example is that the company decided the Falcon 9 rocket launch will become postponed indefinitely. And will roll the rocket back into its hangar for troubleshooting. SpaceX has launched 54 missions so far this year, 53 with the Falcon 9 booster, which means if Falcon 9 needs troubleshooting, a huge number of missions cannot proceed anymore.

All in all, SpaceX is a company with a promising future, but also with a lot of threats regarding contractual issues and technology issues. Therefore, the future of this company depends on whether it will continue to maintain its strengths and solve its threats and problems.

How much will SpaceX be worth?