Op-Ed
How long will it take to transition to renewable energy? There seems to be a huge decrease in the assertiveness levels of renewable groups. Moreover, types pushing super quick energy transitions. Funny how common sense breaks out in a war, when there is massive inflation going on.
Despite, what you may here. By 2030 the US will still receive only 10% of its power from renewables.
Here is a little thought experiment about where we might be heading:
We have a war predicated on energy dominance right now. This is exactly the kind of situation relative to energy stability. One hat will mean energy transition will take much longer than people think.
To think about the next generation instance of this conflict, substitute China for Russia. And switch out the commodity to industrial metals and rare earths. Next, recall the peril Europe is in by being reliant on Russian energy. And substitute in the world being reliant on China for minerals and manufacturing.
Think about how to solve that, mitigate it, to shift the economics of it. Not right now, but over time, in a purposeful way. Furthermore, one that works from the systems we have, to create something that is more in our interest. Whatever that happens to be.
Now, we are playing chess. This is how the world works. To be fair, Western governments are starting to think about it. But I don’t think they are mapping out reasonable strategic plans to look out for their interests. Moreover, beyond the 4 year (or shorter) election cycles typical of Western nations.
In my view, short-termism is a serious weakness in Western culture.
We need to think about finding ways to fix this. Lazy adherence to fashionable trains of thought is really expensive.
Strategic thought is going to have to come to the fore if we want to seriously play in the world. Not saying I get it all and to call me to sort it out. But as a general tack we have to see the world for what it is, and then learn to wisely put braces on it to shift it to meet our aims. Lastly, sounds Machiavellian, but that is statecraft.
In conclusion, some of our leaders would do well to learn this.
