End Of Year Rally? This December, the stock market trend makes people feel stressed about their end-of-year stock market return. The S & P 500 index had a huge pullback from 4731.99 to 4568.02. The pullback has been 3.59%. Today is Dec. 20th, and most retail investors are concerned about whether we have an end-of-year rally to make up for our loss of December?
Based on historical data, the answer would be yes. We still have a big chance to participate in the end-of-year stock market rally. Here is the detailed analysis:
November and December have been the S&P 500’s second and third best months of the year since 1950, with the index rising an average of 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
Based on recent years, here are some similar situations with this year’s trend:
In 2018, the market went down in Sep, Oct, and Nov, but starting from Dec, the trend has reversed. In Dec 2017, S&P 500 had a significant bullish trend with a return of 4.86%. However, in 2015, the trend of Dec followed the bearish trend of Nov., And in 2014, the return of Dec was negative. In Dec 2012, S&P 500 had a bullish trend with a return of 4.27%. And, In Dec 2011, S&P 500 had a great return of 4.78%. Based on only the last ten year, there are more huge positive returns than negative returns. And, in most of the cases, the returns were positive.
Thus, in my opinion, even if the market still has some chance to continue its bearish trend, I think there is a greater possibility that we can have a better trend at the end of Dec. I hope we can have a great market this Christmas week.