Chinese Air Pollution Statistics

Chinese Air Pollution Statistics Ambient air pollution (AAP; see glossary} is the world’s largest environmental-health risk. For instance, AAP caused 3.7 million deaths in 2012, accounting for 53 deaths per global 100,000 capita (WHO, 2014). There are several motives for the Communist Party of China (CPC) to tackle AAP in China.

Firstly, from an ethical perspective, it should be the CPC’s priority to minimize the health damages and premature deaths caused by AAP, such as the 670,000 premature deaths in 2012 (Jing, 2014).

Carbon Content In Trees

Hence, it can be argued that failing to mitigate AAP would be immoral. Secondly, economically, researchers from the Chinese University of Hong Kong estimate the cost of AAP to shave 267 billion yuan (US$38 billion; 0.7% of national GDP)off the Chinese economy each year in the form of early deaths and lost food production (Kao, 2018). Thirdly, China emitted 28.5% of global carbon dioxide emissions in 2018, mainly from energy production (ChinaPower Project, 2019). This contributes to global warming through the enhanced greenhouse effect. Finally, reducing AAP by converting China’s energy production from coal to greener, more efficient sources would help the CPC meet its climate objectives.

The CPC has pledged to peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, coinciding with its commitments to the Paris Agreement (Climate Action Tracker, 2018}. Consequently, the CPC’s clear political rationale comprises four key reasons for reducing AAP: it would alleviate human suffering, minimize economic costs, reduce its contribution to human-induced climate change through carbon emissions, and help the CPC meet its climate objectives.

Successfully mitigating AAP in China is one of the most challenging issues for the CPC because of AAP’s complex formation, with contributions from multiple precursors and sources (Lu, 2020). This project explores the complexity of AAP, and takes a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to explore the numerous facets of China’s AAP. Section 1 of this project begins by analyzing the various sources of AAP that form its complex chemical composition.

Later in this section, this project focuses on the challenges of measuring AAP, and reviews the spatial and seasonal variation of AAP. The end of Section 1 investigates the public concern of AAP in China. This project addresses public concern of AAP because, even with the CPC having the powers of social media censorship, the public’s interest constitutes another motive for the CPC to mitigate AAP.

Section 2 of this project focuses on national mitigation policies implemented for 2015- 2020. This policy analysis concludes that CPC has successfully mitigated China’s AAP to some extent. Nevertheless, China’s AAP remains strong, particularly in the Northeast region of the country. The second part of Section 2 emphasizes the importance of the CPC’s next national mitigation policies, for 2020-2025, and anticipates measures such as an absolute carbon cap or further limits on coal capacity. At the end of this project, there is an appendix to reveal the findings from primary research undertaken for this project, where Hangzhou localselaborate on the AAP mitigation policies in their city. This primary research allows this project to include AAP mitigation on a local, city-wide scale, while the rest of the project focuses on policies on a nationwide scale.

This project’s main argument:

·      There is an extensive rationale for the CPC to mitigate AAP in China

·      There are many complex challenges to successfully mitigating AAP

·      The CPC has mitigated some of the causes of AAP, but levels remain high

·      The next national mitigation policies are important in facilitating the CPC to continue mitigating AAP

Structure

Section 1 of this project studies several trends, causes, and challenges of AAP. Before analyzing national mitigation policies, it is important to understand the different elements of China’s AAP, and therefore the following facets are reviewed:

• ·      What are the sources of China’s AAP?
• ·      Secondly, what is the chemical composition of China’s AAP?
• ·      Thirdly, how is China’s AAP measured?
• ·      Fourthly, how does AAP vary spatially in China?
• ·      Fifthly, why does AAP vary spatially in China?
• ·      Furthermore, how does China’s AAP vary seasonally?
• ·      In addition, how does China’s AAP vary seasonally?
• ·      Lastly, how has public awareness changed?

Section 2 evaluates the most recent national mitigation policies, and discusses suggestions that could be included in future national mitigation policies.

This section will also include a conclusion as to the extent China has successfully mitigated the challenges of AAP. Also, there is an appendix which details a primary research case study of Hangzhou’s AAP mitigation.

This project acts as a reference for understanding air pollution from the perspectives of Westerners, the Chinese population, the media and policymakers. It dissects the subject into subtopics to allow a reader with no prior knowledge to gain a detailed, multi-faceted understanding of China’s AAP.

Context

“We will declare war on pollution and fight it with the same determination as we battled poverty”

(Premier Li Keqiang¹, 12^th National People’s Congress, Great Hall of the People, Beijing,

China, Wednesday 5^th March 2014 (Reuters Editorial, 2014))

After its long-standing priority of economic growth ahead of the environment, Premier Li’s (above} quote is known by several as the moment “the government first took notice” of the importance of tackling AAP in China (Yu, 2018). This quote signals a turning point in the CPC’s attitudes towards AAP in China, and the start of a “new age of environmental

protection”, according to economics professor Michael Greenstone (Greenstone and Schwarz, 2018). Therefore, this project’s timeframe will cover AAP from the time of Li’s quote in March 2014 until June 2020(the time of writing).

SECTION 1: AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE CAUSES, TRENDS AND CHALLENGES

What are the sources of China’s AAP?

China’s AAP is a complex topic, and there are many sources of AAP. Unfortunately, the media often fail to recognise the complexity of air pollution, and news reports regularly simplify AAP to readers inaccurately. An example of this is when journalist Adrian Brown quoted that the “simple” reasoning for Beijing’s 2015 smog was that “people still burn coal to heat their homes” (Al Jazeera English, 2015}. This is partly truthful, however, statements such as this one implies that there is only one source of China’s AAP, and that resolving the issue is straightforward (i.e. to stop burning coal). In reality, the sources of China’s AAPcomprise a multifaceted and varied mix.

China’s coal use is decreasing, and hence coal is becoming a less significant source of the country’s AAP. In 1990, 76.2 percent of energy consumed in China was generated by coal, but that figure has fallen to 59% in 2017. Coal contributes to HAP (see glossary) to a greater extent than it does to AAP. In rural areas, homes rely on coal and other solid fuels (e.g. wood) for heating and cooking. Despite this domestic use forming only 2.4 percent of China’s total coal use, it has a disproportionately large pollution impact because the emissions are less filtered and more concentrated inside people’s homes than they are in AAP inChinese cities (Hongyang, 2019).

Vehicles are becoming an increasingly prominent source of China’s AAP. The total number of vehicles inChina reached 310 million in 2017. Vehicles pollute more in larger cities, or city clusters, where the concentration of exhaust from vehicles is much higher (Jahlil, 2009).

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment blamed vehicles for 45 percent of Beijing’s air pollution in 2017, and nearly 30 percent in Shanghai (Mahmud, 2009).

¹ Premier Li Keqiang is China’s Premier of the State Council, sometimes also referred to informally as the “Prime Minister”. He is the head of the central government of China, and is the holder of the highest rank in the Civil Service. The Premier is the highest administrative position in the Government, and thus Premier Li is an extremely important person. (People.cn, 2019)

The relative sizes of AAP sources from different industries are changing. Historically,

electricity generation has been the main source of China’s AAP (Wiedenbach, 2019}. However, the large steel industry – a key driver of China’s economic development – has increased its emissions in the last decade. By 2017, the steel industry displaced electricity generation as the country’s biggest polluter (ChinaPower Team, 2020}.

Journalist Adrian Brown is fully correct in saying that “there is no quick fix” to China’s AAP (Al Jazeera English, 2015). This is owing partly to its several causes. While an energy sector dominated by coal remains a large AAP source, a polluting steel industry and a rapidly increasing motorization sector are contributing more and more to a complex AAP issue in China (Aunan, Hansen and Wang, 2017).

What is the chemical composition of China’s AAP?

For the CPC to successfully mitigate its AAP, it must first work out the chemical composition of AAP in Chinese cities. Understanding how AAP is chemically composed is beneficial for the CPC as it determines which sources of AAP are most significant and must be mitigated for the CPC to alleviate AAP most effectively.

Historically, recurring episodes of extremely severe AAP in a single location has led to the phenomenon being given special terminology. The “London fog” or “London pea-souper” denotes the thick layer of AAP that covered London during winter months in the 19th and early 20th centuries, culminating with the London smog disaster in 1952 that caused between 4,000 and 12,000 deaths (Austin, Brimblecombe and Sturges,2002).

Hansen (2017) labels any AAP with a similar composition to that of the London smog disaster as “London-style smog” or “classical smog”. It is characterized by a high content of sulphur dioxides, carbon monoxide and soot particles, and is caused by using fossil fuels with a high sulphur content, the most important being coal. In London in 1952, the air became particularly polluted from the widespread use of bituminous coal for heating, a humid climate, and stagnant winter weather conditions.

Another main smog archetype is the “Los Angeles-type smog” or “photochemical smog”, first brought to the world’s attention during the 1940s Los Angeles episodes. It requires neither smoke nor fog, and typically occurs during summer in urban areas where many cars are emitting nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbon vapours (Wang, 2014). This results in high ozone levels (Xing et al. 2014).

Both the London and the Los Angeles types of AAP reduce visibility, the former usually much more than the latter (Zhang and Samet, 2015). Beyond these two types, there are a range of AAP makeups, depending on emission sources and physio-chemical conditions.

For instance, Shijiazhuang – the 22^nd most polluted city globally (WHO, 2018), and the capital of the Hebei province – had the highest mean readings in China for all air pollutants, including PM2.5, PM10, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone. Blanketing this city is a high concentration of fine fraction particles, often measured as PM2.5, which eliminates light through the process of scattering. Shijiazhuang’s AAPmakeup is unique, as the city

experiences both “classical” and “photochemical” smog, in addition to other phenomena such as smoke from biomass burning and dust from the Gobi Desert (Li and Svarverud, 2017).

The conditions that led to China’s longest stretch of extreme AAP (beginning late 2016) were different to those that caused the London smog event. The 1952 London event started on cloud droplets. However, “northern China’s haze starts from much smaller nanoparticles, and the sulphate formation process is only possible with ammonia to neutralize the

particles,” according to scientist Linsheng Yeng (Wang, 2017). “Controlling nitrogen dioxide and ammonia emissions would likely be very effective to reduce severe AAP in

China, in addition to controlling sulphur dioxide” (Wang, 2017}. Yeng therefore believes that the CPC should consider these polluters, as well as the more widely documented PM2.5, in its national mitigation policies(Wang, 2017).

Global warming may help explain why residents continue to report serious AAP, despite monitors revealing a decrease in pollutant concentrations. With global warming, the temperature difference across the north hemisphere is dramatically reduced, resulting in less wind, particularly in winter (Jia, 2017). Lower wind speeds help smoke and fog stagnate at a place, forming smog and increasing pollution levels near the ground, closer to where people are respiring (Rinkesh, 2019).

These findings – such as that the chemical composition of China’s AAP is distinct to that of the historical AAPepisodes in London and Los Angeles – provide the CPC with the information it needs to maximise the effectiveness of its mitigation policies.

How is AAP measured?

Pollution measurements inform decisions. Understanding and accessing data is paramount to allow Data-Driven Decision Making (DDDM): decisions that are backed up by hard data rather than intuitive or observation-based reasons alone (Techopedia.com, 2019).

Poor or limited air quality data can lead to the CPC making poor policies which can harm millions of people.

Overall, the CPC measures six elements of AAP. These comprise the levels of: PM2.5, PM10, sulphur dioxide,nitrogen dioxide, ozone and carbon monoxide (see glossary). These pollutants constitute China’s Air Quality Index (AQI) (see Figure 1) (travelchinaguide.com, 2016).

Figure 1: AQI and health implications

Accessed 24/03/20, https://www.travelchinaguide.com/climate/air-pollution.htm

It is important to measure PM2.5 levels, rather than just PM10. The first reason for this is that PM2.5 can enter human cells more easily than PM10, posing more danger to the respiratory system. For example, for every 5 µg/m³ higher concentration of PM2.5, there was a 20% increase in the rate of coronary artery calcium deposits, which increased the risk of both coronary diseases and hypertension by 22% (WHO, 2013). Secondly, PM2.5 combines more easily than PM10 with vapour in the air to form smog or haze, which reduces visibility and damages lung tissue (National Geographic Society, 2012).

Sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ozone (O₃) all carry similar threats. They should each be measured because, when inhaled in large quantities, they can damage the respiratory system, impair lung function, and irritate the eyes. Sulphur dioxide aggravates the respiratory tract and increases the risk of tract infections (The Lancet, 2016). Sulphur dioxide pollution can also lead to coughing, mucus secretion, and conditions such as asthma and chronic bronchitis (Qld.gov.au, 2017).

As for carbon monoxide (CO), it has the potential to cause headaches, dizziness, vomiting, and nausea(The Lancet, 2016). If carbon monoxide levels are high enough, one can become unconscious or die (Qld.gov.au, 2017). Exposure to moderate or high levels of carbon monoxide over long periods of time has also been linked with an elevated risk of heart disease (Cdc.gov, 2016).

It is as important to measure AAP accurately as it is to measure all six major pollutants. The CPC ensures its recordings are as accurate as possible by using ground-level monitors.

Monitoring AAP at ground-level is much more accurate than estimation from satellites (World Bank, 2015). For these reasons, the CPC has invested in sophisticated equipment, sustained funding, technical know-how, and regulatory support to enable its monitoring network to use solely ground-level monitors.

As well as opting to use ground-level measuring, the CPC has expanded the number of monitors around the country. After local governments had reported “slight pollution” in 2012 despite a thick smog blanketing whole regions, the CPC came under huge media pressure to improve its monitoring. This catalyzed change: in October 2012, the State Council enforced 31 major regional capitals, including Beijing and Shanghai, to install more monitoring stations (PHYS.org, 2012). By March 2017, more than 5,000 stations had been built across the country, and, since then, many more have been built (Pamlin, 2019).

How does AAP vary spatially in China?

The level of AAP in a Chinese city depends heavily on its location within the country (see Figure 2). Thirteen of the twenty most polluted cities in the world are in China (WHO, 2019), but pollution levels vary even between these thirteen cities.

Figure 2: Annual Average PM2.5 Concentrations in China in 2015

Annual average values based on hourly data downloaded from China National Environment MonitoringCenter, accessed 24/03/20, http://106.37.208.233:20035/.

Baoding was named as China’s most polluted city by the CPC’s Ministry of Environmental Protection, based on figures gathered in 2014 (Duggan, 2015). WHO data also concluded that Baoding had China’s most severe AAP levels (WHO, 2019). Baoding was among 24 Chinese cities that were named in the WHO world’s worst fifty polluted cities (WHO, 2019). Six of these cities are in the Hebei province, eight in the Shandong province, eight in the Henan province, and one city in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces respectively². This means that twenty-two of the world’s worst air polluted cities are in three adjoining provinces in the north-east of China. Four of the top five are in the Hebei province.

Chinese cities in the WHO world’s fifty most polluted cities (ranked most-to-least severe):

·      Baoding (Hebei)

·      Jinan (Shandong),

·      Shijiazhuang (Hebei)

·      Hengshui (Hebei)

·      Xingtai (Hebei)

·      Anyang (Henan)

·      Laiocheng (Shandong)

·      Jiaozuo (Henan)

·      Xinxiang (Henan)

·      Handan (Hebei)

·      Heze (Shandong)

·      Jining (Shandong)

·      Xiangyang (Hebei)

·      Dezhou (Shandong)

·      Zaozhuang (Shandong)

·      Donying (Shandong)

·      Luoyang (Henan)

·      Shouguang (Shandong)

·      Zhengzhou (Henan)

·      Luohe (Henan)

·      Shangqiu (Henan)

·      Weinan (Shaanxi)

·      Pingdingshan (Henan)

·      Linfen (Shanxi) (CBS News, 2019)

Figure 3: the locations of Chinese cities in the WHO’s 50 most polluted cities

2China has 34 provincial-level administrative units: 23 provinces, 4 municipalities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing), 5 autonomous regions (Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Ningxia, Xinjiang) and 2 special administrative regions (Hong Kong, Macau). (China Internet Information Centre, 2018)

Map created by Edred Opie on 06/10/20 on google.com/maps

Why does AAP vary spatially in China?

The Hebei province epitomizes the link between China’s economic gain and environmental deterioration. The province’s heavy industry has bolstered the Chinese economy but ravaged air quality. In 2011, Hebei produced 10.9% of the world’s steel (24.0% of China’s}, 8.7% of the world’s coke (14.5% of China’s}, and 6.9% of China’s cement. This industry helps Hebei to account for 5.18% of national GDP, ranking it sixth of China’s twenty-three provinces (Litao Wang et al., 2013). Hebei’s special location exacerbates its AAP. Polluting heavy industry is not only in Hebei province but it is in the surrounding provinces, Shandong,Henan and Shanxi, too. The combined steel, coke and cement productions of the three neighboring provinces are as large as 40.8%, 50.1% and 22.6% of the national total (National Bureau of Statistics, 2013).

China’s centrally planned economy may have contributed to the excess AAP in Hebei. Valerie J. Karplus (2017) disapproves of how centralised China’s political structure is. China’s approach, of allocating highly specific and costly local actions yet assigning funds centrally, has led to misaligned incentives and failure to address long standing weaknesses in local policy monitoring, evaluation, and enforcement, according to Christine Wong (2017). Media attention and policy implementation has prioritized Beijing and Tianjin. An intensified air pollution control plan, that included the two municipalities, has been in place since 1998(Climate & Clean Air Coalition, 2018). To contrast, Hebei was given its first air quality policies in 2012, during the 12^th National Air Plan (Wang et al., 2013). It could be argued that the CPC has failed to address and enforce constraints to the steel, coke and cement factories in Hebei, resulting in its extreme AAP.

A confluence of factors localises air pollution, such as emission intensity, meteorological conditions, as well as where the CPC has implemented AAP limits (Xing et al., 2016). A large concentration of coal-burning industries, and the fact that the CPC has controlled AAP more so in Tianjin and Beijing than in Hebei, both likely contribute to the extreme AAP levels in the province, and the north-east of China in general (Wang et al., 2013).

How does China’s AAP vary seasonally?

PM10 research by Chen et al. (2014), conducted in 17 cities between 1996 and 2008, and PM2.5 research by Huang et al. (2018) concluded that AAP is generally worse in the winter, and eases comparatively in the spring, autumn, and summer months. For instance, In Urumqi – a city of 3.5 million in the Xinjiang province (topchinatravel.com, n.d.) – mean PM10 levels in the winter were 269 micrograms per cubic metre (µg/m³), compared to 109, 56, and 155 in the summer, spring and autumn seasons respectively, between 2006 and2013 (Chen et al., 2014).

Meanwhile, between 2013 and 2017 (see Figure 4), average nationwide PM2.5 concentrations were highest in January (133.10 mg/m³) and December (120.19 mg/m³), and lowest in July (38.76 mg/m³) and August (41.31 mg/m³) (Huang et al., 2018). Thus, annual averages can be misleading as one can forget that AAP tends to be considerably worse in the winter.

Figure 4: Daily and annual variations of PM2.5 in Jiangsu province, China from 2013 to 2017. Accessed06/10/2020, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-40426-8/figures/1

Why does China’s AAP vary seasonally?

Anthropogenically, Xiao et al. (2015) concludes that the meteorological conditions in winter play an “important role” in increasing AAP across Central and Eastern China, after collating 2004-2012 data of PM2.5 and other pollutants. Yuesi Wang, a leading Beijing-based scientist, explained at a 2016 forum thatweather factors-such as high humidity and situations when warmer air aloft holds colder air at the surface-intensify haze formation. In winter, slower air flow and stable atmospheric outer layers inhibit smog diffusion and result in much more polluted days than in other seasons (Wang and Jia, 2017).

How has public awareness changed?

Public awareness is key to curbing AAP. It is not enough for studies to be published and circulated by the media; it has been argued that people should also be made aware of how air pollution impairs their health instead of just what impact it has on their city (Biswas, 2019). In China, the media is playing an important role in changing public concern and perhaps even influencing policies, even if the CPC has suppressed some voices. In 2010, the “London pea-souper” re-appeared in the Chinese media as a historical analogy to suggest that a world-famous city had recovered from being just as polluted, or worse, than Chinese cities in the present (Li, 2016). However, the media was unsuccessful in instilling confidence in the Chinese public, and public concern remained (Li, 2016)

In January 2013, the CPC finally reacted to public pressure to allow the media to recognise its AAP problem(Wong, 2013). The CPC recognised the widespread outcry prompted by the series of very polluted days (the “airpocalypse”} across northern China. In response, the propaganda committee felt obliged to allow the officially sanctioned press to address these growing concerns. Hence, on January 14^th 2013 the Chinese state news media published aggressive reports on “the sickening and dangerous air across the north” (Hongyanf, 2019). This landmark allowed “broad Chinese media coverage of air pollution” for the first time,said Jeremy Goldkorn (2018), who tracks the Chinese news media. He had “never seen”

outlets such as “People’s Daily to Chinese Central Television” covering the story “thoroughly, without putting a positive spin on it”. Finally, it seemed, the government was listening to the “nonstop conversation on Chinese microblogs” (Wong, 2013).

In February 2015, journalist Chai Jing’s attempts to promote a documentary revealed that the CPC continued to censor media concerning China’s AAP. With Jing’s own money of over one million RMB – equivalent to £103,422 at the time – she funded a 104-minute film, named Under the Dome (Ren, 2015). Jing created the documentary to tell “the truth”, and in it she emotively blamed AAP for her infant’s benign tumor (Ren, 2015}. The film attracted over 300 million views until the CPC took it offline four days after its release.

While media censorship in China will likely continue into the foreseeable future, Chai Jing’s documentary widened public concern for AAP. While there will continue to be attempts from the public that influence public policy and consequently China’s AAP situation, perhaps the CPC’s decision to remove Under the Dome suggests that the CPC are fearful of public unease over China’s AAP.

To conclude this section, one of the most crucial steps for reducing AAP is simply raising awareness, even with the CPC’s censorship. Social media is likely playing an important role in influencing mitigation policy. Moreover, this project’s primary research (see appendix for details) revealed that the focus group participants were well-informed of their own city’s AAP, and the mitigation policies in place there. A growing public concern for AAP provides the CPC with even more reason to improve the country’s air quality.

SECTION 2: AN EVALUATION OF NATIONAL MITIGATION POLICIES

The CPC implements policy on all levels, but this report focuses on the national air policies employed in China, of which regional and local policies stem from. Major policies are included in its ‘Five Year Plans (FYP}’, which have been implemented since 1953. Economics expert Dennis Pamlin (2016) called the FYP “one of the most important documents on the planet” for global security and sustainability.

13^th FYP (2016-2020)

Outline of the 13^th FYP’s AAP mitigation policies

AAP around China was extremely severe before the 13^th FYP was implemented. For example, in 2015, the annual average PM2.5 concentration of the 338 municipal cities was 50 µg/m³, and 78% of cities were above China’s PM concentration standards (Greenpeace East Asia, 2016). In the north-easterly city of Shenyang, PM2.5 readings surpassed 1,400 µg/m³. This was approximately fifty-six times the levels considered safe by the WHO (Phillips, 2015). In 2014, 145 cities, with a cumulative population of 269 million, were exposed to mean daily concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 above WHO guideline values for more than 146 days (40%) (Han et al., 2018). Even though the CPC adopted energy and environmental “hard” targets (see glossary) in the 11th FYP (2006-2010) and the 12th FYP (2011-2015), the mitigation policies in place were limited until the 13^th FYP was implemented (Hongyang, 2019).

The 13^th FYP listed thirty-three major targets on the document, with sixteen of these concerning the environment and resource use. This FYP devotes more attention to environmental and resource issues than previous plans, and follows a clear policy trajectory that has developed and strengthened over the past decade. The CPC named “Energy Efficiency and Pollution Abatement” as a “National Policy.”

This puts it on the same level as other key national policies, including “Reform and Opening,” the overarching policy that has framed China’s reform era since 1979, and the Birth Limitation Policy (often called the one- child policy (Finamore, 2016). As in these other cases, referring to AAP mitigation as a “National Policy” signals to local governments and industry the CPC’s serious intention to implement. Many of the 13th FYP targets take the next expected step from the previous five-year plans – new targets for various pollutants, greater ambition in pollution reductions and in shifting to cleaner energy (Finamore, 2016).

Key AAP mitigation objectives of the 13^th FYP include:

·      Cities to have 80% of days with a “good” or “excellent” AQI (export.gov, 2019)

·      Annual average concentration of PM2.5 to decrease by 18% in the cities which failed to attain its ambient air quality standards (Hsu and Seligsohn, 2016)

·      Coal power capacity to reduce to 1,100 gigawatts (GW) (CCCPC, 2016)

·      Volatile organic compound (VOC) (see glossary) emissions to reduce by 10%. This is the first everinclusion of VOCs in Chinese policy (Vaughan, 2014)

As for how these objectives will be met, the CPC announced a “zero tolerance” campaign in 2017, whichtargets 62,000 enterprises. The campaign contains three main foci:

·      Relocation or closure of heavily polluting enterprises

·      Clean production transformation in key industries.

·      Urban domestic sewage and refuse treatment will be fully implemented (Branigan, 2014)

Analysis of the 13^th FYP’s AAP mitigation policies

The first research to complete for most specialists was to calculate the most likely outcomes of the 13^th FYP’s mitigation policies. For example, Tang et al. (2017} estimated the effects that the policies would have in 2020 in thirty-one provincial-level regions in mainland China. Results show that the emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and PM10 in mainland China will be reduced by 4.19 million tons, 3.94 million tons and 4.41 million tons respectively; this is a drop of 23%, 21% and 25% of 2015 levels, and the annual average PM2.5 concentration will decrease by 19%. If these estimates become true, control measures listed in the scenario will have significantly reduced the pollutants emissions, but not enough for all cities in China to attain the national atmospheric air quality standards (which were set by the CPC) by 2020 (Anand, 2012).

The objective to reduce coal power capacity to 1,100 gigawatts sparked much debate among analysts. Initially (in 2015), the coal power capacity limit was easily achievable: at the time, utilisation rates of installed capacity were less than 50% because capacity expanded faster than demand (Pamling, 2016. However, with China’s electricity demand starting to tick upwards again in the past few years, the China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute (2019) (a research body) recently called for a short-term expansion of capacity over the next three years in response. Similarly, in March, the China Electricity Council (2019)suggested that coal-power capacity should expand to 1,300 GW by 2030.

On the other hand, some experts disagreed with the China Electricity Council. Former head policymaker Zhang Guobao (2020) stated that current excess capacity and the growth of renewables and nuclear will be adequate to meet rising demand. Greenpeace’s coal analyst Lauri Myllyvirta (2020) highlighted the profoundAAP risks associated with another round of coal power expansion. Baxter and Zhe (2019) share this standpoint, and stress that climate change and AAP must be tackled hand-in-hand if further deaths are to be avoided. The UN Environment programme and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition recently released a ‘Clean Air Initiative’ calling on governments around the world to align their climate change and AAP policies by 2030 (Shih, 2019).

Experts, such as the director of a global think tank Qi Ye, believe that China has entered a plateau phase(with only minor fluctuations) thanks to slowing economic growth, ongoing energy transition, and, indirectly, rising incomes in cities (Ye, 2018). This is in spite of the CPC’s reluctance to promise an absolute cap on carbon emissions³. Figure 5 hints that this

3 Internationally, China has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030 at the latest, but at the time of writing (June 2020) it has not yet announced an absolute emissions cap on emissions plateau is likely. Moreover, both Ye (2018} and Tang et al. (2019} conclude that the CPC’s expanded network of air quality monitoring stations (in over 400 cities) has enabled it to regulate the sources (likevehicles and power plants) and overall mix of pollutants in the air, so that it can order localities to adjust limits to respond to weather changes. Thus, on “bad air days”, cities would be required to do more (Tang et al.,2019).

Figure 5: Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China.

Accessed 24/03/20, http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=CO2ts1990-2015.

14^th FYP (2021-2025)

Currently, the 14^th FYP is in its drafting process. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is currently leading the development of the 14^th FYP, collecting a range of inputs and coordinating with other ministries through a series of draft documents. For example, the National Energy Administration(NEA) will draw up a 14^th FYP for energy.

Sectoral and regional plans will be made based on the official FYP, which will be approved by China’s top legislature in early 2021 (Shih, 2019). The drafting process starts two years before the plan is finally approved. Ministries began commissioning research internally and from research institutions as part of the “pre-analysis” phase last year (Seligsohn, 2016). The results may feed into next year’s plan-drafting phase.

There is a potentially significant change in the 14^th FYP’s drafting process. China’s climate departmentwas moved from the NDRC to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) as part of the government reshuffle last year (Seligsohn, 2016). This means that climate bureaucrats will see a later version of the draft plan than when the 13^th FYP was drafted. Climate observers worry that this may limit their impact on the plan’s shape and direction (Seligsohn, 2016).

Whereas the 13^th FYP set a total energy consumption cap (five billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent), experts, including MIT fellow Annette Wiedenbach (2019) , are hopeful of an absolute carbon emissions cap to be included in the 14^th FYP. The 13^th FYP’s energy cap ignores the carbon-intensity of energy sources, even though these affect carbon emissions; analysts including Greenpeace’s Li Shuo (2019) want this to be rectified. Optimism has increased: the MEE recently commissioned a dozen research projects in preparation for 2021 (Seligsohn, 2016).

These will look at how other countries set carbon caps and how these targets break down at sectoral and regional levels, perhaps helping the CPC opt for a similar approach (Wiedenbach, 2019). Moreover, key climate and sustainability government advisor Wang Yi echoes Wiedenbach and Li’s desires (Wiedenbach, 2019). “By doing so, we can effectively limit coal consumption without setting any constraints for the development of zero-carbon energy sources,” Yi said. “At the beginning, the target may not seem the most ambitious quantitatively, but it commences a new process to reduce carbon emissions in absolute terms.” (Ehsani and Mwaniki, 2019).

Further objectives on coal usage could also appear in the 14^th FYP. CPC advisor Xie Kechang, suggests that planners should set a target for coal’s proportion of the primary energy mix to be 55% by 2025, down from the current FYP’s target of 58% by the end of 2020. Last year, coal dipped under 60% of the primary energy mix for the first time (Shuo, 2014). Energy centre director Zeng Ming sees limited space for coal power under the next FYP; he expects a lot of coal power plants to be retired (Baxter and Zhe, 2019).

Overall, the importance of Premier Li’s “war” on AAP cannot be understated. Planning for the next five years is a long and complicated process. Few new ideas will survive every round of consultation and revision. Even if a carbon cap is included in the 14th FYP, compromises are likely to accommodate powerful vested interests. Debate on the 14th FYP will continue to warm up over the next year as more stakeholders voice their suggestions, helping to shape the air quality efforts of this crucial policy document (Baxter and Zhe, 2019).

CONCLUSION

Monitoring is expanding, policies developing, and awareness increasing – indications that there is light at the end of the tunnel. This project has studied data, predictions, and analyses on AAP emission, consumption, and exposure, and concludes that China’s worst AAP era has already passed. Nevertheless, AAP levels in Chinese cities will undoubtedly remain high, well above WHO’s health-based air quality guidelines for a long time to come, and those in the north-east will continue to be the worst off.

Should the CPC ensure cities reach the 13^th FYP objectives, and ambitiously elect to cap carbon emissions and undercut coal in the 14^th FYP, one must commend China’s efforts. There are many stakeholders to the future of China’s air, and reducing AAP will not only profoundly improve the health of the population, but will also serve to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change – “the greatest threat to our existence” (Ruffalo, 2019).

Chinese Air Pollution Statistics

Written by Edred Opie

Glossary

Below is a list of key terminology definitions (that must be understood for the reader to fully understand the essay) and abbreviations:

Ambient air pollution (AAP)

A broader term used to describe air pollution in outdoor environments. Poor ambient air quality occurs when pollutants reach high enough concentrations to affect human health and/or the environment. (WHO,2014)

Household air pollution (HAP)

Air pollution from the inefficient combustion of solid fuels (i.e. wood, coal, charcoal, crop waste, dung) is the leading environmental risk factor for death and disability in the world. It was previously described as indoor air pollution (IAP), but acknowledging that human exposure from the air pollution created by the household combustion of solid fuels is not limited to the indoor environment, this risk factor has recently been renamed HAP to more fully capture the health-based risks associated with it. (WHO, 2014)

PM2.5

Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) that has a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers, which is about3% the diameter of a human hair. (Bliss Air, 2010)

PM10

Particulate matter 10 micrometres or less in diameter (NPI.gov.au, 2019)

Ozone

A highly reactive form of oxygen, O₃, that is a major air pollutant in the lower atmosphere. It adversely affects the respiratory system (Merriam Webster, 2020)

Sulphur dioxide

a heavily pungent toxic gas, SO₂, that is easily condensed to a colourless liquid, and is a major airpollutant especially in industrial areas (Merriam Webster, 2020)

Nitrogen dioxide

a toxic reddish brown gas, NO2, that is a strong oxidizing agent, is produced by combustion (as of fossilfuels), and is an atmospheric pollutant (as in smog) (Merriam Webster, 2020)

Carbon monoxide

a colourless odourless very toxic gas, CO, that is formed as a product of the incomplete combustion ofcarbon or a carbon compound (Merriam Webster, 2020)

“Hard” targets

Specific reduction goals – where a definitive, time-bound figure is set

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs)

Any compound of carbon, excluding carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, carbonic acid, metallic carbides or carbonates, and ammonium carbonate, which participates in atmospheric photochemical reactions (Anand, 2012)

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APPENDIX

A primary research case study: Hangzhou

Primary research for this project involved a focus group and a questionnaire (see Figure 6) with a group of Chinese adolescents (aged 16-17) from Hangzhou, Zhejiang province.

Hangzhou is ranked 194th in the WHO Global Ambient Air Quality Database (2019). While far from having the worst in China, AAP is still considered ‘Very High’ by the WHO (numbeo.com, 2020). FaceTime and WeChat were utilised to discuss AAP and the several air quality initiatives implemented in Hangzhou city.

Figure 6: Survey questions, made on SurveyMonkey.com Screenshot taken by EdredOpie, 28/03/20

The focus group’s epitome word was “bikes”. The country’s first ever bike-sharing scheme was launched in Hangzhou in 2008, which is actually the “largest bike-sharing scheme in the world”. Among the wholly positive comments for improving the air and noticeably reducing traffic at rush hour was: “my dad doesn’t drive to work anymore – he cycles. It is safe for him because there are cycle lanes”.

Secondary research delved deeper into the policies affecting the locals’ day to day lives. Theodora Sutcliffe’s (2015} article explored bike-sharing’s impact on tourism in Hangzhou, claiming it “leads the way for sustainable tourism in China”. Another article explained why the bike-sharing scheme was essential: up to 40% of Hangzhou’s air pollution was coming from vehicle emissions (weather and geography being the other main causes) (Willingham, 2016). Hangzhou remains the city with the highest per capita car ownership in China (Willingham, 2016).

Teenagers Xinyi, Lu, Wei and Jay also talked about the banning of fireworks in Hangzhou, even at festivals such as Chinese New Year, and others mentioned the Museum of Hangzhou, a recently constructed ‘Green Building’ (see Figure 7). The interesting communication with Chinese peers revealed that they were each aware of changes in the city and very supportive of improving the environment. The conversations suggested that the municipal government frequently contacts its residents, and that the young Chinese generation, if all like the teenagers from the focus group, are passionate about protectingthe environment.

Figure 7: The Green Building Museum of Hangzhou

Meng, Jiao. Accessed 24/3/20, http://www.cecep.cn/g3621/s12851/t39282.aspx

Chinese Air Pollution Statistics