Brazilian Airline Sector Expected To Grow More Than 43% In 2022 Survey from Belo Investment Research reveals that the number of passengers should reach close to 98 million
The movement at 99 Brazilian airports is expected to grow 43.65% in 2022 compared to 2021. Data from the survey carried out by Belo Investment Research reveals that the number of passengers in the next 12 months should be approximately 98 million. Compared to the 68 million registered this year. However, this will only be true if the new variants of the coronavirus prove to be less impactful towards the economy.
The survey, which uses both alternative and traditional data, considered four factors that impact the passenger airline industry. The first is a historical series registered by the National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC). With data on the numbers of people traveling by air since 2016.
The second aspect is the vaccination rate in Brazil against Covid-19. According to data from Our World Data, a researcher and data center linked to the University of Oxford, England. Up until Tuesday (28), at least 166,062,249 Brazilians received the first dose of the vaccine, which represents 78.1% of the population; 142,965,728 people have received both doses, which equates to 67.3%. And 25,758,909 have already received the booster dose, which is 12.1%.
By the end of 2022 around 90% of the Brazilian population will have received at least the two doses according to forecasts.
The third factor is the rate of search for airline tickets on the internet according to Google Trends. This value was also based on a historical series of surveys carried out since 2016. It is important to remember that in periods leading up to traditional vacation months, this index registers a seasonal increase.
Auto, Aviation & Transportation
In addition, the Belo Investment Research survey also considered the mobility index in Brazilian cities as recorded by Google Mobility. This index is based on the time people spent in cities. And the number of visitors according to the tool’s time window. Which is 5 weeks starting on January 3rd and lasting until February 6th, 2020, which was before the restrictions promoted by the pandemic.
Director of Strategy at Belo Investment Research, Rafael Foscarini, analyzes that the Brazilian aviation market will fully recover to pre-covid activity by the year 2023. Foscarini estimates that by 2023 the numbers could match or surpass those of 2019. Which recorded the highest number of passengers in history.
Foscarini concludes by saying. “What our survey shows is that despite seeing a good recovery, 2022 should still close with 18% fewer passengers compared to the pre-pandemic period. If there are no other setbacks, such as the economic downturn due to new variants of the coronavirus. The Brazilian airline industry will gain momentum, both in domestic and international travel”.
Belo Investment Research is an independent research company that combines traditional and alternative data to analyze market trends since 2016.
