What is the US Coronavirus Fatality Rate?
It has been reported that US President Donald Trump might declare a national emergency on Friday afternoon and invoke the Stafford Act.
This would allow the issuance of over $40 billion to state and municipal governments to combat the Coronavirus. This idea was first brought up by Democrats, so this represents a rare bipartisan act in Washington DC these days.
With the nation on edge over the spread of the virus, how worried should most citizens be?
The CDC is currently reporting 1,700 nationwide cases of the novel Coronavirus and 41 deaths. With an official fatality rate of 2.4%, the US is in much better shape than Italy, but is it even really that high?
The Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton just announced that there are probably over 100,000 cases in the state.
This is quite a claim to be made by the state's highest ranking health official. Director Acton said, "We know now, just the fact of community spread, says that at least 1 percent, at the very least, 1 percent of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today. We have 11.7 million people. So the math is over 100,000. So that just gives you a sense of how this virus spreads and is spreading quickly."
If this is true, then there are certainly many more cases in California, New York & Texas that have gone undocumented, then the real fatality rate for the Coronavirus is far below 2.4% nationally.
Testing is not readily available anywhere in the US.
If most people who contract this virus have no way of distinguishing their ailments from a common cold/flu and have no way to test for the virus, then could there already be millions infected throughout the US carrying the virus?
Of the 41 confirmed Coronavirus deaths nationally, over half came from a single nursing home. As prudent data scientists we should be wary of such a large cluster of a data pool coming from one source.
And even more important is the possibility that there were many deaths from Coronavirus that went unreported because the deceased patients were not tested. If the doctor presumes the cause of death to be the flu, then there won't be a Coronavirus test. With up to 61,000 flu deaths annually in the US, how many might have been from Coronvirus?
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