BREXIT: An Array of Options
Britain's deadline is delayed for the second time.
The original deadline of March 29th has been delayed again. First, the EU extended the deadline until April 12th. Then when it became clear Teresa May could not get an agreement passed through Parliament, she was forced to beg the EU leaders for another extension, which was granted. The new deadline is October 31st and should hopefully give the UK enough time to sort out this mess. But, the new deadline comes with additional conditions. The UK agreed to hold an election on May 23rd to return British members to the new European parliament and that it pledges not to disrupt the EU. If May 23rd results in a loss for May or the election fails to take place, then Britain will be forced out with no deal on June 1st.
Based on the current situation, there are 7 possible outcomes for Brexit.
1. No Deal Brexit
Specifically, there are two situations it might come true:
1) British do not participate in the European Parliament elections, at the same time failed to get a solution before the election, then on June 1, no-deal Brexit.
2) Unable to reach a European agreement before October 31, or finally lawmakers voted to accept no-deal Brexit.
2. Vote to Accept the Theresa May Brexit Plan
Even Theresa May's Brexit Plan failed three times since the EU has repeatedly asserted that it will not make any concessions to this Brexit agreement, this could also become an option.
Currently, the key points of this agreement include:
1. The UK will pay 35 billion pounds of “breakup fee” to the EU
2. Safeguarding the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU
3. Set the transition period of Brexit to the end of 2020
4. The most controversial Northern Safeguards (Backstop), that is, if the UK and the EU do not find an alternative plan in the future, then the UK and Northern Ireland will remain in the EU Customs Union indefinitely, and the UK may not leave unilaterally.
3. Overall Renegotiation
If the EU accepts to re-enter negotiations, then the government could renegotiate a completely new Brexit deal.
4. Second Referendum
In fact, the 2016 referendum on the Brexit itself did not have a decisive effect. It was the British government who decided to "obey the will of the people." But this time, if the second referendum is really held, there is a voice hoping that the second referendum will be decisive, which means that the referendum results will automatically take effect. The current result of how Brexit has played out, would likely make people even more reluctant to vote for Brexit the second time, but if they do, more people will probably choose to stay.
5. Call a General Election
This is the trick that Theresa May played in 2017, and the final outcome was that the Conservative Party lost the absolute seat advantage of the House of Commons, and has to cooperate with the Northern Ireland Democratic Unity Party (DUP) to ensure the status of the ruling party.
If May decides to reuse the trick, it needs “yes” from more than two-thirds of the member; if not, then she only has two choices: either continue to push the Brexit or promote resignation.
6. Vote of No Confidence
The no-confidence motion refers to the vote request from members of a British political party to withdraw their leader of the party. Each political party has its own relevant regulations.
In the case of the Conservative Party, 15% of Conservative MPs must support a no-confidence motion in order to launch it.
On January 16 this year, the British Parliament had already held a vote of no confidence for the current government. The end result was that Theresa May’s government wins with a slight advantage of 325 versus 306.
But if the vote is held again, the winning chance of Theresa May’s government is unclear.
7. Cancel Brexit
The European Court of Justice ruled that the UK could unilaterally cancel the Brexit decision without the permission of the 27 EU member states. The judge's decision was based on a notice issued by Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon.
& Edited by Alexander Fleiss
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