Battle Damage Assessment Of The Ukraine War & A Strategic and Tactical Update
Modern Military
Today’s post provides a strategic and tactical update, as well as continues the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment update of the entire Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
On December 5th, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 1,538 tanks (119 over the month of November alone) since the war began. To put this in perspective — in the Active Duty US Army there are 12 Armored Brigade Combat Teams each with 87 tanks (1,044 M1A2 Abrams). If the United States lost the same amount of tanks in a conflict, every tank in all 12 of the active Armored Brigade Combat Teams would have been destroyed plus another ~5+ brigade’s worth of tanks. The Russian tank loss numbers are staggering.
Here is a historic perspective on tank losses. From June 6, 1944 through May 15, 1945 the United States lost ~7,000 (including ~4,347 M4 Sherman Tanks) tanks in the European Theater of Operations (think D-Day to the end of the war in northern Europe). That’s an average of 20.5 tanks per day. The Russians lost 3.7 tanks per day in the month of November.
Current Situation — Strategic Level
The US Army defines the strategic level of war as the level of war that “involves national (or multinational) guidance and resources to achieve national- or theater-level objectives. The strategic level of analysis would analyze any actions taken that involve national (or multinational) guidance, resources, or objectives and end state.” For Russia, its strategic objectives remain recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian rejection of NATO, the demilitarization of Ukrainian armed forces, and recognition of DPR and LPR as independent states. For Ukraine, its strategic objectives remain defeat of the Russian military, restoration of its borders, and a US/European security guarantee.
At the strategic level, Russia continued to look for ways to snatch some type of victory out of the jaws of defeat. They continue to try to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war. Ukraine continues to target Russian logistics to set the conditions for more counterattacks like the one in Kharkiv in September.
Current Situation — Tactical Level
At the tactical level, the front lines have moved little over the past month. Ukraine recaptured 3,850km2 of its territory in November and continues to look for tactical victories. As of December 1, Russia occupies 104,587 km2 of Ukrainian territory and Ukraine holds 498,962 km2 of Ukraine. Pre-2014 Ukraine consisted of 603,550 km2.
Estimated Losses
Russian Losses
KIA+Missing = ~79,358 (289 per day)
WIA = ~151,968 (544 per day)
Total Casualties (KIA, WIA, and Missing) = ~231,326
Ukrainian Losses
A column of Ukrainian tanks liberating territory in Kherson Oblast.
KIA+Missing = ~44,476 (158 per day)
WIA = ~73,852 (266 per day)
Total Casualties (KIA, WIA, and Missing) = ~118,328
Total Russian BDA (As of December 5, 2022 at 15:00 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures total losses from February 24 onwards)
Key vehicles lost include:
- 1,538x T-72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (119 ⬆️ — all change numbers since November 1, 2022)
- Average of 5.4x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
- 2,266x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (203 ⬆️ )
- Average of 8.0x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
- 247x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (12 ⬆️ )
- 622x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (40 ⬆️ )
- 119x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (6 ⬆️ )
- 516x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (36 ⬆️)
Ukrainian BDA (As of December 5, 2022 at 1500 EDT From the Oryx Website)
Tanks line the streets of Kyiv, Ukraine during their Independence Day parade, Aug. 24.
So far, Ukrainian forces have lost:
- 436x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 99 since 1 NOV.)
- Average of 1.5x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
- 562x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 118 since 1 NOV.)
- 201x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 38 since 1 NOV)
- 59x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 11 since 1 NOV)
For More Information on the Conflict:
Invasion of Ukraine, River Crossing
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
Want even more? Reach out to me me here for a virtual talk to your group or company on the Invasion of Ukraine and its tactical and strategic implications.
In conclusion, want something different? Furthermore, in my day job, I’m an executive coach and leadership consultant. I published a book last summer on how to develop your perseverance and accomplish your goals — Grow Your Grit, available for sale at Amazon. Or reach out to me here to start the discussion about improving your performance by having an executive coach in your corner.
Lastly, use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.
Modern Military
Battle Damage Assessment Of The Ukraine War & A Strategic and Tactical Update
